Finland’s top intelligence official has issued a stark warning about Russia’s planned military expansion, urging NATO to stay alert.
Russia’s Military Build-Up: A Growing Concern for NATO
Finland’s military intelligence chief, Pekka Turunen, has cautioned that Russia’s planned military reforms—expected to increase its troop numbers by 30%—pose a serious threat to NATO. Speaking on Thursday, Turunen emphasized the need for vigilance as Moscow moves forward with its military restructuring.
As the European Union country with the longest border shared with Russia, Finland has long been aware of the security risks posed by its neighbor. In response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Finland officially joined NATO in 2023, followed by Sweden in March 2024. Now, as Russia intensifies its military presence, Finland is sounding the alarm.
Russia’s Military Reform Plans
According to Finland’s annual military intelligence review, Moscow aims to complete its military expansion by the end of 2026. However, Turunen believes Russia may realistically achieve this goal by 2030.
“This is a direct threat to NATO, especially if Russia successfully executes its plan,” Turunen told Reuters. “We need to react by staying vigilant.”
Russia’s Defense Minister previously stated in December that Moscow must be prepared to confront NATO in Europe within the next decade. At the same event, President Vladimir Putin dismissed Western concerns, claiming that NATO countries were exaggerating the so-called “Russian threat” to justify their own policies.
The Scale of Russia’s Military Expansion
Moscow’s military reform aims to increase the size of its forces to 1.5 million soldiers—a 30% rise from its current strength. This expansion would significantly impact NATO’s eastern flank, particularly Finland and other bordering nations.
For Finland, the biggest concern is the potential doubling or even tripling of Russian troops stationed near its borders compared to pre-Ukraine war levels. According to Turunen, Russia plans to establish a new military corps in the Karelia region, directly adjacent to Finland. Additionally, existing forces in the Kola Peninsula and St. Petersburg will be expanded.
The Ukraine Factor
The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a crucial factor in Russia’s military plans. Turunen suggested that if the war continues, Russia’s military buildup may be delayed or altered. However, if the conflict ends or transitions into a frozen state, Moscow could accelerate its expansion efforts.
What This Means for NATO and Global Security
With Russia’s growing military capabilities, NATO must reassess its defense strategies, particularly in the Baltic and Nordic regions. Finland’s warning highlights the urgency of strengthening collective security measures to deter potential aggression.
As geopolitical tensions rise, the coming years will be critical in determining the balance of power between NATO and Russia. Whether or not Moscow’s military expansion materializes as planned, Finland’s intelligence chief has made it clear: vigilance is essential.
