Ecuadorians are heading to the polls this Sunday, and all eyes are on President Daniel Noboa, who is seeking reelection. With his strong stance on security and crime reduction, Noboa appears poised for a decisive win. However, he faces criticism from opponents who argue that more needs to be done to tackle the country’s deep-rooted issues.
Noboa’s Security Achievements and Campaign Strategy
Elected in 2023 to complete the previous president’s term, Noboa has made security a key focus of his administration. He claims that deploying the military to streets and prisons has led to a 15% drop in violent deaths and a significant reduction in prison violence. His government has also captured several high-profile gang leaders, reinforcing his commitment to restoring law and order.
Despite these accomplishments, Noboa’s 15 challengers argue that crime, largely fueled by the drug trade, remains a pressing issue. While some propose alternative security measures, many of their solutions require constitutional reforms or complex legislative approvals—hurdles that could delay any real impact. Noboa, on the other hand, insists he is already taking the necessary steps, including tightening security at borders and ports to prevent criminal activities.
At his final campaign rally in Quito, Noboa delivered a powerful message:
“Today, Ecuador has changed and wants to keep changing. We are not just a promise anymore—we are a reality.”
His speech resonated with supporters, including 20-year-old student Kevin Galarza, who praised Noboa for achieving what previous governments could not. Galarza expressed confidence in Noboa’s ability to win outright in the first round, avoiding a runoff election in April.
Can Noboa Win Without a Runoff?
Noboa aims to secure victory in the first round by either surpassing 50% of the votes or winning at least 40% while maintaining a 10-point lead over his closest rival. Major opinion polls suggest this is a strong possibility, though some surveys indicate a potential runoff against leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez, who also ran against him in 2023.
Gonzalez, a protégé of former President Rafael Correa, has centered her campaign on tackling corruption within the judiciary, increasing social spending in high-crime areas, and launching large-scale military operations against organized crime. Speaking at her final rally, she emphasized a different approach:
“We can’t talk about controlling violence without thinking of social justice. Ecuador needs peace, not war.”
Her supporters, like architect Diego Soria, believe she is the only candidate with a clear vision and the experience to lead the country.
A Tight Race with High Stakes
With tensions rising, both Noboa and Gonzalez have urged their supporters to monitor vote counting closely to prevent potential fraud. Gonzalez’s party has even called for a “defense of popular will,” suggesting concerns about election integrity.
Meanwhile, Noboa has introduced last-minute policies, including support for returning migrants, tariffs on Mexican imports, and a trade agreement with Canada, seemingly to gain favor with undecided voters.
On election day, Noboa will cast his vote in Olon, Santa Elena province, while Gonzalez will vote in Canuto, Manabi province. Alongside the presidential race, Ecuadorians will also elect 151 members of the National Assembly, shaping the country’s legislative future.
With security, economic stability, and governance at stake, Ecuador’s voters face a critical decision that could shape the nation’s trajectory. Will Noboa’s tough-on-crime policies be enough to secure a first-round victory, or will Gonzalez force a runoff battle in April?
