Australia’s upcoming May 3 election is being reshaped by an unlikely issue: the war in Gaza. Thousands of miles away from the conflict, the political fallout is fracturing voter loyalties and putting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government at risk.
From Muslim communities in Sydney’s west to Jewish voters in Melbourne’s affluent suburbs, anger over Labor’s stance on Gaza is fueling a dramatic shift—one that could cost the party its slim majority in parliament.
A Political Earthquake in Western Sydney
For years, western Sydney’s multicultural electorates have been Labor strongholds. But now, longtime supporters like Az Fahmi, a Muslim activist, are turning against the party.
“The only time they will ever listen is during election time,” says Fahmi, who once campaigned for Labor but now backs an independent Muslim candidate, Dr. Ziad Basyouny, in protest over Labor’s Gaza response.
With Muslim voters making up nearly a third of the population in some seats, experts warn of a 20% swing against Labor—mirroring the UK Labour Party’s losses last year over Gaza.
Jewish Voters Abandon Labor Over Antisemitism
Meanwhile, Jewish Australians, though just 0.5% of the population, hold significant sway in key urban seats. Hava Mendelle, a Jewish mother in Brisbane, once voted Labor for its climate policies—but now leads a campaign to unseat the government over its “weak” response to antisemitism.
The conservative Liberal-National opposition is capitalizing on this discontent, running pro-Israel candidates in Jewish-heavy electorates. In Sydney’s eastern suburbs, candidate Ro Knox (a Hebrew University alum) is challenging independents seen as too soft on Palestine.
“When one is bad and one is good, you can’t please two people. You need to take a side,” says Jewish voter Shaun Eliastam.
Why This Election Hangs in the Balance
Labor’s one-seat majority is at risk in at least nine key electorates, where Gaza could decide the outcome.
- Muslim voters are furious over Labor’s balanced stance (calling for ceasefires while supporting Israel’s right to defend itself).
- Jewish voters accuse Labor of failing to combat antisemitism.
- Independents could exploit Australia’s preferential voting system to siphon votes from major parties.
“What happened in Gaza really mobilized people,” says Fahmi. “I don’t think our local representatives realized how important this issue is.”
Will Gaza Decide Australia’s Future?
With social media amplifying Middle East tensions and family ties making the war feel local, this election could see foreign policy sway domestic politics like never before.
For Labor, the challenge is clear: Can it hold onto its base—or will Gaza cost it the election?
