In a dramatic escalation of tensions between two nuclear-armed neighbors, Pakistan has taken several bold steps in response to India’s suspension of a critical water-sharing agreement, the Indus Waters Treaty, and the ongoing conflict in Kashmir. These measures mark the lowest point in bilateral relations between India and Pakistan in years.
On Thursday, Pakistan announced it was closing its airspace to Indian airlines, effectively grounding all Indian-operated flights over its territory. This move follows India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a key agreement established in 1960 to regulate the sharing of the Indus River waters. Pakistan condemned this decision, warning that any attempt to stop or divert water would be considered an “act of war.” In addition to airspace restrictions, Pakistan has also suspended all trade with India and halted special South Asian visas issued to Indian nationals.
The dramatic moves come in the wake of a deadly Islamist militant attack in Indian Kashmir on Tuesday, which left 26 people dead at a popular tourist site in Pahalgam. Indian authorities have suggested that cross-border elements may have been involved in the attack, and New Delhi responded by downgrading diplomatic ties with Pakistan, suspending the water-sharing treaty, and closing the only land crossing between the two countries.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister’s office issued a strong statement rejecting India’s actions, insisting that Islamabad will not abide by any violation of the Indus Waters Treaty and will respond with “full force across the complete spectrum of national power” if its water rights are violated. The suspension of the treaty is particularly troubling for Pakistan, as it is heavily dependent on the water resources from the Indus River for agriculture, power generation, and overall survival.
Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue the militants behind the Kashmir attack. He expressed his intent to “punish beyond imagination” those responsible for targeting the heart of India. Modi’s statement was met with widespread support from the Indian public, who are angered by the killings. However, despite his strong rhetoric, Modi refrained from directly naming Pakistan in his speech, instead focusing on the act of terror itself.
The diplomatic standoff has already had an economic impact, with Pakistan’s government bonds dropping by over four cents as investors reacted to the worsening situation. The conflict, rooted in territorial disputes over the Kashmir region, has led to decades of tension, including three wars between the two countries. Kashmir has long been a contentious issue, with both India and Pakistan laying claim to the region in its entirety, though each country controls only part of it.
Islamabad’s decision to close airspace and suspend trade is not an isolated move, as it has called for the suspension of all bilateral agreements between the two nations, including the 1972 Simla Agreement, which was signed to resolve disputes after their third war. The agreement is a cornerstone of India-Pakistan diplomacy, and Pakistan’s suspension of this treaty signals how deeply entrenched the animosity has become.
This latest escalation follows years of tension between the two nations, particularly since India’s 2019 revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status. Since then, diplomatic relations have been at an all-time low, with both countries expelling diplomats and withholding formal diplomatic representation. India has accused Pakistan of supporting insurgency in Kashmir, though Pakistan maintains it only offers moral and diplomatic backing to Kashmir’s self-determination movement.
The situation remains tense, and the coming days will likely see further developments as both countries stand firm in their positions. As the conflict continues to unfold, the region faces an uncertain future, with the threat of war hanging in the air.
