With trade negotiations between the United States and China set to begin in Geneva, Chinese exporters are moving quickly to resume shipments to American retailers—despite the shadow of steep tariffs.
Following the April 10 decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose 145% tariffs on goods from China, exports between the two economic giants plummeted. China swiftly retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S.-made goods, sparking a tit-for-tat trade war that left container ships docked and goods stranded.
By late April, nearly 60% of shipments from China to the U.S. had dropped off, according to freight data from logistics firm Flexport. Hapag-Lloyd, a major shipping company, reported a 30% cancellation rate on China-bound shipments.
Now, the tide appears to be turning.
Chinese freight forwarders and exporters—some of whom supply big U.S. names like Walmart—have begun booking container space from mid-May, preparing to get products moving again. This renewed activity is driven not just by optimism that tariffs may be eased, but also by sheer necessity.
“Retailers are running out of inventory,” said Jonathan Chitayat of Genimex Group, a manufacturing company that supplies products ranging from Bluetooth speakers to trash bins. “If they don’t act now, U.S. store shelves could be empty within 30 to 60 days.”
The urgency is particularly high for goods that are hard to source outside China—like home furnishings, electronics, and toys. Liu, a second-generation toy manufacturer in Dongguan, noted that half her orders traditionally come from the U.S. “My American customers can’t wait anymore,” she said. “Even if the tariffs aren’t dropped, they need to restock.”
While shipments are resuming, the volume is still lower than usual. Liu cautioned that if tariffs remain in place when her goods arrive in the U.S., it’s the American consumer who will ultimately foot the bill.
The White House’s tone has shifted in recent days. Trump hinted that a reduction in the current 145% tariff might be “likely.” This softer stance, combined with scheduled trade talks in Switzerland, has raised hopes among exporters.
Still, industry experts like Dominic Desmarais of Liya Solutions warn against premature celebration. “Back in 2018, it took two years for the U.S. and China to reach a deal after a similar tariff hike,” he noted. “One round of talks in Switzerland probably won’t fix everything.”
In the meantime, freight prices are expected to rise. Container costs from Shanghai to Los Angeles could jump by $500 after May 15, pushing rates above $3,700 for a 40-foot container, according to Freightos.
Even Walmart, which has tried to stay flexible, admitted to adjusting sourcing strategies “item by item, category by category.”
The message is clear: trade routes may be reopening, but uncertainty still hangs in the air. For now, exporters and retailers alike are racing against the clock—hoping diplomacy moves faster than economic damage.
