Poland is bracing for a political showdown after nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly won the presidential election, defeating pro-European Union contender Rafal Trzaskowski. The final tally, released Monday, shows Nawrocki clinched 50.89% of the vote — a razor-thin margin that now threatens to derail Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s liberal agenda.
Nawrocki’s victory marks a major political upset and signals a resurgence for the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), which lost power just 18 months ago. As a strong opponent of EU influence, Nawrocki is expected to follow in the footsteps of outgoing President Andrzej Duda, using his veto power to block Tusk’s efforts to restore ties with Brussels and reform the judiciary.
For pro-EU advocates, the result is a heavy blow. Prime Minister Tusk, a longtime defender of EU integration, now faces a more challenging legislative path. Tusk’s proposed judicial reforms — designed to undo the controversial changes made under PiS — are likely to hit a wall under Nawrocki’s presidency.
The EU has clashed with Poland for years over judicial independence, with the bloc’s top court ruling that recent appointment procedures failed to guarantee impartiality. Brussels even filed lawsuits after Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal questioned the supremacy of EU law — a stance Nawrocki seems poised to maintain.
Trzaskowski, the candidate for Tusk’s Civic Coalition, initially declared victory after a close exit poll on Sunday but conceded defeat after official results were released. “I’m sorry I couldn’t convince more citizens of my vision for Poland,” he posted on X (formerly Twitter), offering congratulations to Nawrocki.
Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian and amateur boxer, framed the election as a public referendum on the Tusk administration. PiS allies celebrated his win, with lawmaker Jacek Sasin declaring, “The referendum on the dismissal of the Tusk government has been won.”
Public reaction was mixed, reflecting deep national polarization. “It was on a knife-edge,” said Patryk Marek, a 32-year-old IT worker. “The result shows just how divided we are as a country.”
Markets were quick to respond. Warsaw’s main stock index dropped by around 2%, and the Polish zloty weakened against the euro — signs of investor concern over potential policy paralysis.
International reactions poured in. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban and Romanian hardliner George Simion hailed Nawrocki’s win as a victory for nationalism in Central Europe. Czech eurosceptic Andrej Babis also chimed in with congratulations.
Despite the friction, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen remained optimistic, saying she hopes to continue “very good cooperation” with Warsaw.
Nawrocki’s campaign focused on Polish sovereignty and limiting what he views as overreach from Brussels, as well as prioritizing native Poles over refugees, particularly those from Ukraine. While the president’s role is largely symbolic, his veto power gives him major leverage. And with Tusk’s coalition lacking the votes to override it, gridlock looms large.
One thing is certain: Nawrocki’s win is set to reshape Poland’s political future — and send shockwaves through the EU.
