Tensions are escalating between Russia and Moldova as Moscow accuses the latter of preparing a military operation in Transnistria, a breakaway region backed by Russia. Analysts warn that these accusations could be part of a larger strategy by the Kremlin to destabilize Moldova and derail its European Union ambitions.
Russia’s Allegations Against Moldova
Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service recently accused Moldovan President Maia Sandu of planning a military intervention in Transnistria, which borders Ukraine.
The Kremlin claims this operation could spark a larger conflict. Sandu, who was sworn in for her second term this week, denies the accusations through her chief of staff, Adrian Balutel, stating Moldova has no intention of using military force in the region.
Adding to the tension, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs alleged that NATO has been turning Moldova into a hub for weapons destined for Ukraine. Maria Zakharova, a Russian foreign ministry spokesperson, highlighted Sandu’s pro-Western stance to support these claims.
What is Transnistria?
Transnistria, a narrow strip of land bordering Ukraine, declared independence from Moldova in 1990. In a 2006 referendum, the region reaffirmed its independence and expressed a desire to unite with Russia, although the referendum remains unrecognized internationally. The region hosts around 1,500 Russian soldiers and the Cobasna ammunition depot, one of Eastern Europe’s largest weapons storage facilities.
Internationally recognized as part of Moldova, Transnistria is seen by many European nations as occupied by Russia since 2022. Leaders of Transnistria previously appealed to Moscow for protection, mirroring actions taken by pro-Russian regions in Ukraine.
Concerns About a ‘False Flag’ Operation
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that Russia’s accusations could be groundwork for a false flag operation in Transnistria. These events typically involve a staged attack used as a pretext for military action. Such a strategy could destabilize Moldova and hinder its ongoing efforts to join the European Union. Moldova has been an EU candidate since June 2022, and Sandu has prioritized integrating the country into Western alliances.
Moldova’s President Maia Sandu has consistently voiced concerns about her country being Moscow’s next target, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Other Ways Russia is Pressuring Moldova
Political Manipulation
Moldova has faced claims of Russian interference in its elections, disinformation campaigns, and allegations of pro-Russian oligarchs funding antigovernment protests. The most notable is Ilan Shor, a former Moldovan parliamentarian convicted in absentia for fraud, who is accused of attempting to destabilize the country.
Energy Crisis
Moldova depends on gas supplied by Russia, which is routed through Ukraine to Transnistria. From there, Transnistria sells electricity back to Moldova. Kyiv’s recent decision to halt the transit of Russian gas has deepened Moldova’s energy crisis. President Sandu has warned of a difficult winter ahead as the country prepares for the cessation of Russian gas supplies by January 2025.
Violence in Transnistria
In April 2022, a series of explosions in Transnistria targeted government facilities and infrastructure, which Ukrainian officials described as false flag operations by Russia. These incidents were allegedly used to portray Transnistria as under threat from Moldova due to its support for Ukraine.
What Lies Ahead?
The growing tension between Russia and Moldova highlights the fragile geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe. As Moldova pushes forward with its EU candidacy, Moscow’s accusations and tactics appear aimed at obstructing this progress. Whether through political, economic, or military pressure, Moldova faces significant challenges in navigating this crisis.
