As the United States halts military aid to Ukraine, Europe faces a pressing challenge—how to fill the gap. While European nations have the financial resources to support Kyiv, they lack the necessary military equipment to sustain Ukraine’s fight against Russia. The question now is whether Europe can ramp up its defense production fast enough or if it will have to turn to American arms manufacturers for help.
Europe’s Growing Role in Ukraine’s Defense
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, European nations—including the UK, Norway, and Switzerland—have been the biggest financial supporters of Ukraine, contributing approximately €132 billion in military and civilian aid. In comparison, the U.S. has provided about €114 billion. Of this combined aid, €120 billion has been allocated to military support.
Despite this, Europe now faces an urgent dilemma. The U.S. has been contributing €38 billion per year to Ukraine, a figure that European nations could technically afford. Increasing defense spending to 3.5% of GDP—a target being discussed by European leaders—could generate an extra €320 billion annually. Moreover, the European Commission has proposed a €150 billion loan facility to support joint defense initiatives.
However, money alone is not enough. Ukraine requires immediate access to advanced weapons like tanks, air defense systems, and intelligence support—capabilities that the U.S. has been crucial in providing.
Can Europe Deliver the Needed Military Equipment?
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that his country can continue fighting for about six months without additional U.S. support. While Ukraine is producing 4 million drones annually, its military still heavily depends on Western-supplied tanks, artillery, and missile defense systems.
Europe does have some alternatives to American weaponry. For example, European countries can supply Leopard tanks as substitutes for U.S.-made Abrams tanks. Additionally, French, German, and Norwegian air defense systems can serve as replacements for the U.S.’s Patriot missile system.
European defense companies have ramped up production, with firms like Rheinmetall planning to establish a manufacturing facility in Ukraine. Last year, European manufacturers delivered 1 million artillery shells, with plans to increase that to 1.5 million this year. However, to meet Ukraine’s demand, production would need to double.
Another significant issue is timing. Even if European nations agree to supply more weapons, delivering and deploying them takes months. Ukrainian forces also need training on new military equipment before they can use it effectively.
Turning to the U.S. for Weapons?
If European countries struggle to meet Ukraine’s needs quickly, they may have to buy weapons from American defense contractors. However, this would require fast decision-making and could be influenced by political uncertainties in Washington.
On March 4, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a strategy to increase European defense spending and reduce dependence on the U.S. Meanwhile, European leaders are set to meet on Thursday to discuss boosting their military budgets. With Ukraine’s battlefield situation deteriorating, these discussions are no longer just about policy—they are about preventing a crisis.
Europe has the financial power to sustain Ukraine, but whether it can deliver the necessary weapons on time remains the real test.
